BRITAIN has been on a scrappage high for some time but with the scheme being wound up the UK car market could suffer a distinct hangover.
Take a look at the current picture of the car market in the rest of Europe where there is plenty of unease.
Worrying predictions from automotive data and intelligence, JATO Dynamics have flagged up a declining new car demand in Germany with the market dropping by almost a third.
Even that unassailable benchmark of sensible quality, the Volkswagen Golf, has seen February sales drop by four per cent compared with the same period last year.
Germany was once Europe’s largest new car market and is now suffering from scrappage deficiency syndrome.
Last month, it was outsold by Italy, which is still operating a scrappage incentive scheme worth EUR 1,500 - 5,000, for every 10 year old car traded for a new, low emissions model.
You do not have to be the Wizard of Oz to realise that if Germany's situation was to affect all markets at the end of their scrappage schemes a third of all European new car registrations could be lost by by mid-2010.
The UK scrappage scheme extension expires at the end of March, while schemes will be phased out in Spain, Italy and France through 2010.
The continued buoyant sales in these markets ensured overall European sales remained positive in February.
This month has seen Italy once again claim the title of Europe’s biggest new car market.
Dominated by Fiat and with an enduring appetite for small cars, it was the only market in Europe selling over 200,000 cars last month and is up 25.2% compared to the same period in 2009.
The UK is another strong performer, up 28.7% but we are dependent on the scrappage incentive, which has accounted for more than 320,000 sales since its introduction and for one in five registrations in February.
Will there be a Scappage Two initiative soon? With a forthcoming General Election I would not rule it out.
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